How to Cook? Sunday December 2nd 2035

from Pam Brown’s 2035 diary

Power cut just as I was cooking dinner in the electric oven, transferred everything to the top of the wood stove as it’s awkward connecting the generator to the cooker. I’d like one of the multi-fuel cookers but can’t help worrying about air quality. The government can’t ensure continuous electricity, rejects gas and oil, but has prohibited so many wood and coal heaters and stoves that it’s a real dilemma – to keep to the regulations and be unable to cook or keep warm, or burn what we have available and suffer polluted air? Life is about impossible questions these days. 

Mar e Lago Under Water: Saturday December 15th 2035

Mar e Lago at Palm Beach, the glitzy Florida country club residence of former US President and near-nonagenarian Donald Trump, is under water, so it’s not glitzy, gaudy or even functioning anymore. Florida is changing shape, shrinking, and people with money are moving to where they think they may be safer. Donald Trump was a climate-change denier, maybe still is, I don’t know, but denying that such a serious problem exists, when there is a mountain of evidence to the contrary, is like wandering onto a battlefield wearing a blindfold and ear defenders.

Rainy Christmas: Tuesday December 25th 2035

Christmas Day, warm, wet and quiet. When I was at school we were taught that Mediterranean climates had warm wet winters and hot dry summers. The heat is Mediterranean but we have a deal more rain, often so heavy that the drainage network is overloaded and the force of the flow lifts manhole covers. People walking in flooded streets have drowned after falling into open drains. That’s a sad comment for today, but there you are, climate disruption is not a happy story. You can’t plan for the future when conditions are so unstable, and you can’t keep on repairing damaged infrastructure. It’s throwing money down the flooded manholes. 

I had a microwave dinner – microwaves are frugal users of energy, at least – and video calls with Rose, Wil and Seren, and elder grandson Jac. I enjoyed those.


Nuclear Not Happening

Saturday November 17th 2035

No mains electricity for the last two days, the fifteenth cut of the year lasting more than 24 hours, no sun for the photovoltaics we got ten years ago, no wind for the roof turbine. Main problem is the freezer. If there’s no power tomorrow, no sun and no wind, we’ll have to put the generator on. That’s not the automatic response any longer, because it’s an elderly model running on petrol, which is super expensive while pensions are meagre.

Sizewell B nuclear power station, photographed in 2006 by Ivor Branton, geograph.org.uk, Creative Commons

We have five gallons in a drum and we try not to use it. Why has the power failed when we haven’t had a storm? Simple, we are over-dependent on sun and wind for our electricity, and the nuclear stations that we were promised are still mired in delays. Only three stations are still working, that’s Sizewell B, and the two at Hinkley Point C. They have a total capacity of 4,476 MW, and I think last year they produced about 33 billion kWh. That’s about 470 kWh for each of Britain’s 70 million people compared with 910 kWh from nuclear generation for each of the 65 million back in 2020.

It’s about time we stopped using our freezer at all and relied wholly on preserving jars, smoking and salt!

Laughing at a Good Life

Saturday November 24th 2035

The power returned on Monday. Wil cycled over today and we watched an ancient comedy repeat from about 60 years ago, called The Good Life about a couple called Tom and Barbara Good who decided to become mini-smallholders in their home in suburban Surbiton, and to live entirely on the output from their garden and allotment, to the chagrin of their conventional friends and neighbours, status-aware Margo Leadbetter and executive husband Jerry. The Goods are cash-poor but live in a comfortable house and always have fuel for their range. They have clothes from their old life, vegetables and eggs from their expansive super-sized garden and no need of entertainment because the Leadbetters unknowingly provide all of that. Margo is forever in social combat with Mrs Dooms-Paterson, who is at the pinnacle of the Surbiton suburban hierarchy. The Good Life ended after three years, about the length of time that Tom and Barbara could reasonably survive on garden produce and items they had bought earlier, before the roof of their middle-class house began to leak and the paintwork to flake off. It’s different now, not a choice any longer, and even tougher because houses with large gardens have not been built for decades. The surnames are revealing: who could quarrel with the Goods, trying their best, but Leadbetter, lead-better, suggests we should regard the rebels as crazy and follow the Leadbetter path to salaried material contentment. While it lasted.


Yangtze Plague

Tuesday November 6th 2035

Tough few weeks. Another pandemic is spreading, not as fast as Covid 15 years ago because people travel less and international trade has slowed so much, but it is more lethal, killing one in five of those who are infected against Covid’s one in 50. Symptoms seem to vary but generally victims have a very high fever and struggle to breathe. I can only guess why mortality is so high. Maybe because so many cannot afford vaccines now, even here in Wales where it has been a priority to retain as much of the National Health Service as possible after the UK government privatised it six years ago. It’s all gone the way of dentistry – a public hospital will remove a tooth that has decayed but a private dentist will try to preserve or replace it, for a price of course.

The Three Gorges Dam, as it was earlier this century.

I digress. The new pandemic seems to have spread from China – again – where the Communist Party is still in control although it practises the opposite of communism as I understand it, which should be co-operative and harmonious, but instead it is a Stalinist dictatorship over the proletariat, a dismissive term lumping individuals into a class. Stalin’s name is retreating into history, just like Hitler’s, and happily Putin’s too. China’s President Liu tries to keep an iron grip on power but escalating crises make it impossible and the nation is unravelling at the edges. There are more than 2.5 million in the standing armed forces, I heard, plus nearly a million in paramilitary branches and vast numbers of reservists, but it is a struggle to keep them all paid and fed. It could be that the new virus, which we just call the Yangtze Plague, came from the collapsing natural environments along the hugely heightened river – up to 175 metres deep – stretching from the Three Gorges Dam 410 miles inland to Chongqing and crossing geological fault lines. The dam is still standing, because of monumental efforts to clear the sediments that rise up against its back wall, and also to patch up the structure which has been buffeted now for nearly 30 years. What’s the life expectancy of a major dam? It used to be thought of as 50 to 100 years, but that was before the extra stresses and strains from global warming. I don’t know how engineers would go about decommissioning a dam like Three Gorges (pictured). I guess it would have to be done very slowly, to avoid tragic drownings and the destruction of communities? But I don’t know.


Independent Scotland, United Ireland

Tuesday September 4th 2035

Daughter Rose was 53 on the 2nd. I booked a ride to Llandew on the community minibus last Friday, and returned yesterday on the weekly post van. We talked about the break-up of the union into which we were born. Cracks were widening before the beginning of the end in the early 2020s. Then it was about the initial repercussions of Brexit, the UK’s dumb decision to leave the European Union. Northern Ireland remained in the European Single Market alongside Ireland, to avoid a new border that could jeopardise the 1998 peace agreement, while England, Scotland and Wales exited completely, despite Scotland’s population having voted in favour of staying. Of course, Scotland’s independence referendum in 2014 had shown a majority for staying in the union, 55% to 45% I think it was, but Westminster’s hostility and belittling did nothing to build on that majority. Wales had an independence movement too, a slow burn because the majority English-speaking population tended to link independence with a wish for secession by the 10% able to speak Welsh with any degree of fluency. Even if all of that 10% voted for the independence party Plaid Cymru it would make very little difference overall. I remember that when English-speaker Leanne Wood was leader for the six years 2012 to 2018, she took the party towards eco-socialism, which turned off many in the very conservative but Welsh-speaking rural population but attracted young English speakers. Adam Price, a Welsh-language enthusiast and former high-profile MP from the Amman Valley in Carmarthenshire, challenged her for the leadership and, backed by the language devotees, won. But for a time his victory made the party less attractive to eco-socialists and to the 90% of mainly English speakers. So the party began to be labelled a ‘pressure group’, and some disillusioned members drifted towards the Greens, but then young people enthused by both eco-socialism and Welsh culture completed the circle. Adam Price signed a co-operation agreement with Labour’s First Minister then, Mark Drakeford, and the two parties resisted efforts from Westminster to back-track on devolution. Wales is behind Scotland, which gained independence in 2030, the same year in which Ireland became one country, but change is coming to Wales because the centre cannot hold.

Yet political alterations mean less than we expected, because the heating planet has forced different priorities on us. A decade ago most of us didn’t really understand what climate change would mean. The term sounds neutral, but the changes have often been terrifying, and each year we have fewer resources to rebuild homes, roads, railways, all the infrastructure of a modern state. We are less connected than in the early 2020s, but that also means we are freer because authorities cannot track us all the time like they used to do. Two cheers anyway.

So humid today. Hard to think clearly.


Crop Stealers

Sunday August 19th 2035

Have been busy making tomato chutney, which I like with cider vinegar but that is hard to get hold of. My nephew Alun over near Aberdan planted an orchard of apple trees a dozen years ago, and they are starting to crop well now, so I will ask him if he can spare me some for a batch of cider vinegar. I can give him broad beans in return, definitely my favourite vegetable, and a legume too, good for the soil. Even small children now learn that legumes and soil bacteria called rhizobia have a symbiotic relationship – within nodules on the roots, the rhizobia convert nitrogen from the atmosphere into nitrogen available for plant nutrition. Twenty years ago the public didn’t think about soil fertility that much. Manufactured fertilisers were still affordable, just about, but we need to grow differently now, and it demands much more skill. I am not sufficiently skilful. We have just enough food to survive. I always over-plant because you never know what will grow and what will be destroyed, by weather that has forgotten seasonal good behaviour, and by our competitors like slugs. Crops are stolen, too, have been for the past five years or so. Lyn and Sian down the lane give meals to a rota of village children in return for crop watching. Even five years ago we still used security cameras but the electricity supply became less and less reliable and also more expensive. We had a camera powered by rechargeable lithium batteries but when they eventually gave out we didn’t replace them because we have more urgent uses for our scarce electricity. Maybe I’ll try a solar-powered camera, but it’s bound to be intermittent.

There was talk of a village hydro-electric plant, powered from the Crychydd river, but it dries up every summer now. It would be OK in winter, perhaps we could resurrect the plan, but people are so tired. I wonder how many of today’s children will live as long as me? I was born just before the foundation of the old National Health Service, but that’s all been privatised and you only receive treatment if you have the money to pay, or have the luck to be accepted as a charity case. Here in Wales there is a long tradition of self-medication, just think of the Physicians of Myddfai, and the Herbalists of Cwrt y Cadno, and yes I do grow herbs with medicinal value, but as an amateur. Evening primroses and great mullein would take over the garden if I Iet them, above a carpet of wild strawberries. I make mullein tea for coughs and evening primrose oil for dry skin and eczema. Looking back as I can to the 1960s I wonder at the optimism then, at the confidence of eternal progress. I’ve still got some tomes from university days, one of which is Man’s Role in Changing the Face of the Earth[1]…. I’ve just fetched it from the walnut Regency bookcase that grandad Henry gave me when I was about seven. (Stupidly I took off and lost its glass door, because I didn’t want the books hidden behind it.) There are 1,194 pages in this 1956 volume, published by University of Chicago Press. Chapters include ‘Possible limits of raw-material consumption’ and ‘Limitations to energy use’.   I have turned to ‘Limitations to energy use’, by Charles A Scarlott, who was enthusiastic about nuclear power, about “the possibility that the nuclear-fusion reaction can be made a controlled energy source. The amounts of energy such a reaction would make possible are almost incomprehensible”.  Mr Scarlott, then a technical information manager in the public relations department at Stanford Research Institute in California, admitted some concerns – “The facts about our energy resources are sobering. The rapidity with which we are finding ways of spending that energy, often without realizing it, is shocking” – but was not worried because of his “infinite confidence, supported by a long record of the past, that man’s ingenuity is equal to the task”. In terms of techniques of exploiting energy sources, that may have been true, but he did not even mention climate change.

The preceding chapter, ‘Possible limits of raw-material consumption’ by Samuel H Ordway Jr, a leading conservationist in the mid 20th century, was more cautious. Mr Ordway wrote that if industries carry on expanding, there would come “an enforced, unexpected reversal of a faith”. He advised using the next 60 years – 1956 to 2016 – “to face up to the problem of how to save prosperity”. He thought that in an increasingly prosperous society, people would work less and have more time to devote to saving civilisation, but that did not happen on anything like the scale required. Instead of spreading prosperity, the big bosses kept more and more for themselves and kept wages too low for the nose-to-grindstone masses to have time to save the world.

“If men recognize today the danger ahead from continuing overconsumption of resources and basic lack of human sympathy with nature, they will seek remedies”, wrote Mr Ordway (it was all men, men, men in those days). By and large men did not seek remedies with anything like the urgency required. So Mr Scarlott was over-confident in the power of technology, and Mr Ordway was over-confident about the capacity of people to act in the long-term interests of the planet and therefore of themselves too. 

Man’s Role in Changing the Face of the Earth reflects male and predominately American culture. Only one of over 70 authors was a woman, Dr Edavaleth K Janaki Ammal, from India, writing about subsistence agriculture in the recently independent former British colony. In the middle of the 20th century women’s voices became louder. I think of Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, Vandana Shiva’s campaigns for seed sovereignty and regenerative farming, Elinor Ostrom’s work on polycentric decision making in and between communities, Kate Raworth’s doughnut economics – keep inside the doughnut for sustainability and avoid the dangerous black space of excess growth – and of course the climate activist Greta Thunberg. They are all from ‘democracies’ which no matter how flawed allow greater freedom of expression and dissent than in autocratic states with tight central control.

It’s true that autocratic states were in the ascendant until the exorbitant costs of climate breakdown led to the fraying of control systems, first at the margins then accelerating towards the centres. Technologies of control still exist, but it’s too costly to have them everywhere.


[1] Man’s Role in Changing the Face of the Earth, edited by William L Thomas Jr, University of Chicago Press, 1956. Published for the Wenner-Gren Foundation for Anthropological Research and the National Science Foundation.


Neighbours from the Maldives

Sunday August 5th 2035

Azaan Hassan, his wife Zeena and their two girls Ainy and Niha, were settled in our village exactly a year ago by the local authority, in a house requisitioned from an absentee landlord, in the same street as me. They lived in the Maldives until the islands were lost to rising waters. Their journey here involved boats, lorries, and selling the few possessions they had left, chiefly Zeena’s jewellery and Azaan’s gold watch, a family heirloom. The government did not want to let any of them in, but they had no home, no country to be sent back to. The London government, which long opposed all attempts to devolve foreign policy to the UK’s nations, just said ‘No Entry’ but the Wales Government set up a resettlement scheme for 5,000 families and one of them came to our village. They have lost touch with so many of their relatives and friends, who may or may not be alive. Azaan is a make-do and mend mechanic and keeps our petrol and diesel vehicles operating, important because we don’t have timetabled public transport anymore, and there was a backlash against electric cars when it became clear just how polluting they are to make, how difficult to recycle, and how they propelled demand for electricity way above the capacity of the National Grid. So we plan journeys with great care and travel as little as possible. It limits our world view, but we do have an electric community minibus (reluctantly, because it’s not cheap to keep it on the road), and we have learnt a lot from the Hassans. Zeena makes clothes from recycled materials, Ainy does this too, and Niha grows vegetables on the school playing field. The school was closed in 2015, when the local authority decided to bus the children to town 10 miles away, at huge cost, on the basis that large schools are better. The education authority let a not-for-profit group have the school on a 30-year lease, I joined in and we opened a local history centre. Then the buses stopped three years ago and we opened a little general shop, a craft skills centre – and once again, a school.

The largest building on the school site is stone with high ceilings and a slate roof, so it is bearable in our hot summers, but heavy rains test the roof too much. We can’t afford to replace it completely so it’s buckets and patch-ups.  Earlier this century the costs of constantly rebuilding weather-damaged homes, roads, railways, power lines, whole villages and towns, were ignored, partly because the reconstruction works counted towards the economic growth that our government, most governments, still desired. It looked as though we had a supercharged economy, but all we were doing was to use up resources quicker and quicker and pump more carbon dioxide and noxious gases into the heating atmosphere. People were still reluctant to say ‘Stop’. They didn’t think their lifestyles would change so dramatically, so fast. I think it’s called ‘optimism bias’. The Hassans are not optimistic any longer, I’m not, my late cousin Pat was not, but I still meet people who think the worst has already happened and that this is just a temporary blip.


Canute Can’t Stop the Tide

Saturday July 28th 2035

Our house is 400 feet above sea level, and over 20 miles from the sea, a location unlikely to be affected by sea level rise in the near future. So far, the main issues for coastal communities have been tidal surges when land has been deluged by heavy rains, like last year down the east coast of England all the way from East Yorkshire to Essex. My friend Sally’s house on the shore at Wilton-on-Sea was under water to the first-floor windows. Sally and her husband Matt were evacuated by lifeboat from the RNLI station at the end of the road. They haven’t been back to live, they know that extreme events will be more frequent. They can’t find anyone willing to insure their home, and neither can they find anyone to buy it. They cannot afford to buy another house – Matt is 80 now and no one will sell him a mortgage, especially as he has no equity to release. He and Sally are in a caravan ten miles inland, in their son Philip’s garden. Even around here in inland Wales, there are caravans and tents dotted all over the countryside, their occupants seeking refuge from dangerous situations, and somewhere where they can at least think about providing their own food. The county council object, but they don’t have the resources to move the squatters on. And where could they go? Thinking back, in 2020 a book called A Small Farm Future, by Chris Smaje, I think, argued for a back to the land movement, for new small farms and smallholdings and for the countryside to be repopulated. I thought it a great idea, but most landowners did not. Round here the landowners exert a lot of pressure on the county council and they tried to keep out interlopers, as they saw them, but their King Canute attitude was defeated by sheer pressure of numbers. I’m pleased about that.


Scenes from an imagined future, if we are no longer dominated by the kleptogarchy

What Happened to the Revolution? Sunday July 22nd 2035

I remember the revolution of 2024 to 2027. It petered out in the heat and humidity of summer 2027. Energy prices had skyrocketed, impacting everything else. There was some financial help from the government of the time, but by the end of 2024 more than five households in ten could not pay their bills without borrowing. The debt overhang collapsed into a political crisis, we experienced riots, strikes, violent uprisings. We had shortages of everything. The failing government tried to cling on, while it over-filled the jails with the protesters it had criminalised. Eventually so many ministers resigned that the government crumbled. Turnout in the general election that followed was low, because people were exhausted and dispirited. The new administration didn’t pretend that a return to affluence was possible, we would all have to manage with less. And we did. No more super rich, they agreed to heavy taxation or they left. In years past the super-rich would have persuaded enough of us that they were indispensable, that without them the economy would crumble, but not this time. The mystique had evaporated. The new government was labelled socialist, but it was more complicated than that, a rich or untidy mixture, depending on your point of view, of not-for-profit and state-owned enterprises, individual and family businesses and co-ops. The deluge of dubious money flowing into the City of London slowed to a streamlet and now it is a dribble. Redundant bank buildings were converted into homes. We are poorer, more self-reliant, and think of progress as the abandonment of 19th and 20th century notions of humans as the dominators, the big beasts of the living world. It is a long road back. A hot, dusty road.

Perennials: Thursday July 26th 2035

I hesitate to write ‘what a hot day’ because it’s nearly always hot, energy-sapping hot, and I work in the garden only at dawn and dusk. In the middle of the day, I try to sleep. Now that I’m 89, the bones creak a bit, but we need to keep going. My daughter Rose visited on Sunday, travelling the ten miles from Llandew on her electric bike, and we sat under the green striped umbrella in the garden. There’s a hosepipe ban, like every summer now, but I have water butts to collect any rain that drains off the house, garage and shed roofs. The butts are not full so I prioritise the vegetables, because they are such a vital part of our diet. A few years back I started growing a lot of perennial vegetables, like Babington’s leeks and perpetual spinach, and count myself lucky to have a garden, especially considering the food shortages we often face. We grow and swap, and order what we can’t produce ourselves – flour, rice, pasta, sugar, salt, pepper — through the community council’s purchasing group. Tea and coffee are such luxuries now, but we do have milk, butter and cheese from Dai Davies’ dairy just outside the village, on the flatter land of the Geitho valley where the dense sward of native grasses helps to retain moisture in the soil.

Money is a problem because of course old-age pensions have not been uprated for inflation since 2030 and so they buy less and less every year. Inflation now is not due to strong demand, but to shortages of supply. I expect pension payments will stop completely before long, and it will be as if David Lloyd George had never introduced them back in 1909. They rescued the aged and infirm from the fear of the workhouse, which we thought had been banished for good. We will all have to be inventive. We barter, spend any cash we can get hold of, and worry about how the next generations will cope. There aren’t many public services left, it’s down to community groups to organise what they can. Rose has a small salary from the regional council for her work with disadvantaged children, but it’s only a half of her income of 15 years ago. Then her husband Henri was alive, but he died nearly three years ago of sepsis after what seemed a minor cut, but it became infected. The infection did not respond to antibiotics.


Why Don’t More People Fight Back: The Kleptogarchy part 29

Why Don’t More People Fight Back?

Why do people submit to being pushed around by ‘bosses’ whose main focus appears to be self-aggrandisement? Most people are reasonable folk who just want to live their lives in as pleasant a manner as possible, without upsetting too many others. They like to co-operate, says Dutch historian Rutger Bregman, author of Humankind: a hopeful history.[1] Bregman argues that hunter-gatherer societies operated co-operatively, and that through history most people were not violent. He cites several examples of soldiers who avoided shooting at ‘the enemy’[2]. He questions the accuracy of experiments such as psychologist Philip Zombardo’s Stanford Prison Experiment, in which students role-played as prisoners versus guards, and the guards became brutal;[3] Stanley Milgram’s experiment at Yale University, in which one group of students gave electric shocks to other students who got wrong answers in memory tests;[4] and the apparent refusal of eyewitnesses to intervene in the fatal stabbing of a woman called Catherine Susan Genovese.[5] He also disputes the conventional explanations of events such as the environmental collapse on Easter Island,[6] although his view that conditions after deforestation were not too bad is questionable because after the trees were lost soil erosion was severe, habitats deteriorated, the birds that were important food sources disappeared, competition for food supplies intensified, and the society became more violent.

The story of identical twins Constand and Abraham Viljoen, and the acceptance by white people of the end of apartheid in South Africa,[7] is a fascinating insight into conflict avoidance. Constand became chief of the South African Defence Force while Abraham became an academic with keen to reach out across communities. Abraham backed Mandela and worked with him, but Constand was reluctant to consider the end of white rule. The first elections in 1994 could have been a disaster as the extreme right might have started a civil war, but after hardly speaking for four decades, the twins hammered out an agreement, to accept the results of the election, which saw Mandela take office as a conciliatory president.

If humans generally are well-disposed towards others, how come that Earth is not a beacon of selflessness? Bregman suggests that social psychopaths expect others to behave just like them: “Dictators and despots, governors and generals – they all too often resort to brute force to prevent scenarios that exist only in their own heads, on the assumption that the average Joe is ruled by self-interest, just like them.”[8]

An alternative explanation is that dictators and despots behave as they do because they know most people will not challenge them, preferring to live as quietly as possible under the political radar. People’s willingness to co-exist therefore enables social psychopaths to exert control and to indulge in self-aggrandisement. Only when leaders go much too far, and their disdain becomes blindingly obvious, do swathes of the public want to turn against them. And wanting to turn is not at all the same as actually turning, because giving up a quiet life is a huge step! In the end mass discontent foments revolutions, which are rarely peaceful.

For Bregman, participatory democracy is the way to stop leaders morphing into despots. He gives several examples, such as citizens assemblies in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and in Torres, Lara, Venezuela. Instead of professional politicians, subject to intense lobbying from powerful forces, you have citizens chosen at random and for a limited time. Yet citizens assemblies have not made headway as permanent institutions. The World Resources Institute[9] reported in 2018 that when a right-wing party was elected to govern Porto Alegre in 2016, the role of citizens in the city’s annual budget setting process was attenuated, to save money. The assemblies had already become less influential: between 1994 and 2004, 82% of citizen-approved spending plans had been implemented, but between 2004 and 2016, only 42% of a smaller total were enacted. In Venezuela, participatory budget setting began in Torres in 2004, and is the subject of a PhD thesis by Gabriel Bodin Hetland.[10] Citizens assemblies give people a voice, but that voice is granted by governments, and when governments are short of money, or have an authoritarian political stance, the participatory largesse is withdrawn.

Multiple strands of government sow confusion because lines of responsibility tend to be muddled. In addition, populations remote from centres of power are unlikely to know government leaders personally, and when politicians’ decisions damage them, there is scarcely anything they can do. In democracies they can wait for an election, but there are all sorts of ways of fixing elections. Lose votes here and there, add fake votes into the mix, impose criteria for voting such as insisting on official identity documents with the bearer’s photo. Autocratic rulers like bellicose nationalist Vladimir Putin, who has engineered change in the Russian constitution to enable him to remain President until 2036, and China’s Xi Jinping, now potentially President for life following removal of the previous limit of two terms, have subjects who lack even a vestigial democracy. Republics have a habit of transitioning into Empires, until the Emperors overreach themselves. The Roman Republic morphed into Empire in 27BC, with the accession of Julius Caesar’s adopted son Augustus. Only 15 years after the eruption of the 1789 Revolution against absolute monarchs, Napoleon assumed the mantle Emperor of France. Over the Atlantic the USA is no stranger to hereditary dynasties, with father and son presidents George Herbert Walker Bush and George Walker Bush, and the Clintons, President Bill and wife Hillary, the Democrats’ presidential candidate in 2016. The likely Kennedy dynasty was dashed by the assassinations of President John Kennedy in 1963 and of his brother Robert, who was seeking the Democratic nomination, in 1968. Younger brother Edward was also a potential president until the Chappaquiddick accident in July 1969, when his car passenger and aide Mary Jo Kopechne died after the vehicle left a bridge and sank in water.

There are copious examples from other parts of the world, including North Korea, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Even in the United Kingdom, there is a hereditary monarchy with a limited political role but considerable influence and a cornucopia of palaces, estates, artworks and servants, when the housing charity Shelter calculates that well over a quarter of a million people in England are homeless[11]. Millions more are in inadequate housing that is too cold, mouldy, damp, expensive, or small. Shelter calculated that 17.5 million adults, 22 million including children in the UK suffer from poor housing.[12] That is one in every three of the UK’s 67.89 million people, and it’s getting worse due to workers’ falling real incomes, and government failures to ensure that sufficient, well-insulated new homes are constructed. Margaret Thatcher, UK Prime Minister from 1979 to 1990, enabled tenants of homes built by municipalities to buy their homes at large discounts. This was a popular policy, but by 2022 around half of all the homes sold under ‘right to buy’ were owned by private landlords and let privately, often at much higher rents than a local authority would charge. Buyers who took advantage of ‘right to buy’ saw opportunities for big capital gains, because after ten years they could sell on the open market. Owners often had no choice but to sell if they moved into a care home, to fund the fees. Children of deceased buyers often had to sell, to split the asset according to the terms of a will. Right to buy was a short-term feel-good policy with harmful long-term consequences, for which private landlords are often blamed, sometimes fairly but in many cases unfairly because rental properties are expensive to maintain in good condition, and not all tenants are clean and careful.

Margaret Thatcher may have thought she was creating a meritocracy, in which ambitious go-getters would transform the nations of the Union into that reductive term ‘UK plc’, but her pro-private, anti-public policies, and her disregard for old industrial communities, stabbed into the heart of the Union and accelerated the splintering apart. People who know they are viewed as disposable cannot be expected to show loyalty to leaders who worship at the shrine of economic growth.

It is unfettered economic growth that now threatens the existence of humans, and countless other species, on a very small planet with a thin, polluted biosphere. The religion of Economy First is no more than a death cult, yet even when we know this is happening, the psychopathic tendencies of rulers restrict possibilities for radical corrective action.


[1] Humankind: a Hopeful History, by Rutger Bregman, Bloomsbury Publishing, 2020. Translated from Dutch by Elizabeth Manton and Erica Moore. First published in Dutch as De Meeste Mensen Deugen by De Correspondent in 2019.

[2] Ibid, e.g. p.217.

[3] Ibid, chapter 7, ‘In the basement of Stanford University’.

[4] Ibid, chapter 8, ‘Stanley Milgram and the shock machine’.

[5] Ibid, chapter 9, ‘The death of Catherine Susan Genovese’.

[6] Ibid, chapter 6, ‘The mystery of Easter Island’.

[7] Ibid, chapter 17, ‘The best remedy for hate, injustice and prejudice’.

[8] Ibid, p.7.

[9] ‘What if Citizens Set City Budgets? An Experiment that Captivated the World—Participatory Budgeting—might be Abandoned in its Birthplace’, by Valeria Lvovna Gelman and Daniely Votto, World Resources Institute, June 13th 2018. https://www.wri.org/insights/what-if-citizens-set-city-budgets-experiment-captivated-world-participatory-budgeting, accessed January 25th 2022.

[10] Making Democracy Real: Participatory Governance in Urban Latin America, by Gabriel Bodin Hetland, University of California, Berkeley, summer 2015. https://escholarship.org/content/qt5hr63406/qt5hr63406_noSplash_d26f8c08d39f37896f1bda31ac4e0f1b.pdf, accessed January 25th 2022.

[11] ‘274,000 people in England are homeless, with thousands more likely to lose their homes’ from Shelter, December 9th 2021. https://england.shelter.org.uk/media/press_release/274000_people_in_england_are_homeless_with_thousands_more_likely_to_lose_their_homes, accessed January 25th 2022.

[12]  ’17.5 million people now impacted by the housing emergency’, from Shelter, May 26th 2021.      https://england.shelter.org.uk/media/press_release/17_5million_people_now_impacted_by_the_housing_emergency_, accessed January 26th 2022.


Shoving People Aside: The Kleptogarchy part 28

Shoving People Aside

Endemic viruses weaken communities. Expulsions break communities up. In China, an unpublished number of people were displaced, moved out, by the mammoth Three Gorges Dam, on which work began in 1994. The estimated totals range from 1.3 million (Chinese Government), 1.4 million – 1.5 million (Antoine Vedeilhe and others for France 24) to 6 million (Dr Brooke Wilmsen at La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia.[1]) Brooke Wilmsen expanded the count to include people like fishermen whose livelihoods evaporated, and those whose homes disappeared in landslips or floods. It is not done in China to criticise the government, so fears about instability and collapse come mainly from outside the country. Hydraulic engineer Dr Wang Weiluo, working in Germany and not allowed to publish in China, told France 24 that there is distortion in the dam, and that if it broke, the wall of water would submerge Wuhan some 400 kilometres (250 miles) downstream. Coincidentally, Wuhan is widely accepted as the source of Covid-19.

News channel France 24’s ‘China’s Three Gorges Dam Revisited’[2],  released in October 2020, reveals the low compensation paid to those whose homes and farmlands were to be submerged as the waters behind the dam rose 175 metres, just on 569 feet. A displaced farmer said he was offered €3,000 (about £2,520 at the rate on November 21st 2021) a pension of €6 (£5) a month, and accommodation 800 kilometers (500 miles) away. He chose to remain in a nearby town, renting a tiny room, and is poverty-stricken.

The world’s largest hydro-electric plant is at the dam, with a capacity of 22,500 MW. Each year the plant generates about 85TW hours of electricity, nearly 10% of China’s requirements[3], and saving over 100 million tonnes of CO2. The US Energy Information Administration reckons that, when burned, one ton of coal with 78% carbon content releases 2.86 tons of CO2. So the dam, the largest of 98,000 throughout China, and its hydro plant are better for the environment than coal-fired power stations, surely? Dams create a giant carbon footprint, though. The Three Gorges dam wall contains 27.2 million cubic metres of concrete. The manufacture of each cubic metre emits between 100 and 300 kg of CO2, depending on the composition, so 27.2 million cubic metres would have emitted between 2.7 million and 8.2 million tonnes, which at the upper estimate is a quarter of the annual CO2 emissions of Wales. The dam contains 463,000 tonnes of steel, embodying nearly 857,000 tonnes of CO2. Then there are the 102.6 million cubic metres of earth bulldozed out of the way, the turbines, all the ancillary works, and the ongoing maintenance. Is it fair, then, to class hydro power as renewable?

In operation, hydro power stations are ‘clean’ compared with burning coal. If the 85TW hours of electricity were generated from coal, around 67 million tonnes of CO2 would be added to the atmosphere. That is twice the total emissions from Wales and can be pictured as 13.4 million five-tonne African elephants flying around the sky.

Yet dams are no panacea. Just in China, in August 1975 up to 240,000 people died – no one is quite sure — and 11 million lost their homes, when the Banqiao and Shimantan dams, and 60 others, in Henan province failed after torrential rains.

What often accompanies global heating?

Torrential rains.


[1] https://www.latrobe.edu.au/news/announcements/2017/the-dam-that-moves-a-mountain.

[2] Video by Antoine Vedeilhe, Angelique Forget, Camille Despierres, Antoine Morel and Charlie Wang, October 3rd 2020, on YouTube. 

[3] https://www.power-technology.com/projects/gorges/, accessed November 21st 2021.